Who can use it:
Gas supply, operations, rates, electric procurement, planning, and dispatching operations of utilities or energy marketers.

Description:
In the Monte Carlo simulations, the generation of demand scenarios is based on WeatherWise models that incorporate varying factors such as historic weather, pricing, hedging strategies, availability and capacity factors, supply constraints and grid congestion, and storm damage recovery. Various supply plans can be evaluated to determine the optimal solution for overall system management. The capabilities in custom simulations are impressive:

• Weather load calculations make use of a multitude of weather years in several locations to simulate future weather on an hour-by-hour basis.
• Energy price hedging and purchasing decisions involving futures and swing volumes can be made to more precisely match actual market conditions due to the high quality model results and the capability for massive simulations.
• Weather hedging involving customized analysis and payoffs of various weather instruments based on locations and amounts for each situation can be undertaken.
• Grid risk with respect to pricing offers and trading along with locational marginal pricing, basis risk and congestion risk can be modeled.
• Fixed rate risk can be determined.
  • Evaluation of storm damage recovery scenarios and the financial impact of rate structure can be done.
  • Plant outages and consideration of risks and protocols in the event of a plant outage including weather and fossil fuel pricing allow purchases of energy and capacity to compensate for losses.
• Line pressure calculations and assessment of temperature per day vs. line capacities will identify area of potential pressure problems allowing for preventative maintenance and system design solutions.
• Transformer load calculations provide more accurate identification of transformer issues to assist operations in prioritizing repairs to prevent outages.